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How to formulate probability for a new worker on a new sample in a crowdsourcing platform? [x-post with statistics]

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I am working on a system where you could assess the value of a new worker in a crowdsourcing platform on a new sample. To state it more formally:

Given a set of workers W which have each already labeled a set of samples S (for which we know the actual ground truth), we want to know the probability that a new worker w will get a new sample s correct. Assume that we know the similarity/distance between s and each sample in S and the similarity/distance between w and each worker in W.

Would this just simply be something like:

p(y | x) = 1/k Σ (e-D(w,Wi) 1/n Σ (e-D(s,Sx) * (1 - error(Wi on Sx))))

where k is the number of workers in W and n is the number of samples in S, and D(x1,x2) is the distance between x1 and x2

Or am I missing something?

Furthermore, suppose I have the option of choosing one of several new workers based on their probability of being correct with this sample. Do I just add an argmax?

submitted by Omega037
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