I've been reading Machine Learning - A Probabilistic Perspective by Kevin P. Murphy. Each chapter features exercises and one that seems incredibly simple has me completely baffled.
Here's the exercise:
Probabilities are sensitive to the form of the question that was used to generate the answer.
(Source: Minka.) My neighbor has two children. Assuming the gender of a child is like a coin flip, it is most likely, a priori, that my neighbor has one boy and one girl, with probability 1/2. The other possibilities—two boys or two girls—have probabilities 1/4 and 1/4.
a. Suppose I ask him whether he has any boys and he says yes. What is the possibility that one child is a girl?
b. Suppose instead that I happen to see one of his children run by, and it is a boy. What is the porbability that the other child is a girl?
As I understand it a. and b. are identical. But they wouldn't be asking the question if that was the case.
What am I missing?
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